Methods

TS-Energy is based on a stochastic and dynamic programming technique consisting of a two-step approach made up of backward and forward integration.

"Backward integration"

A so-called action grid is created, containing the best strategy for any time in the future, for any market condition and for all internal statuses of the asset under consideration.

"Forward integration"

The defined strategy is then applied to scenarios. These scenarios are created via Monte Carlo simulations or provided by our customers. As a result, the fair value and risk indicators are determined for each item and for the entire portfolio.
If the defined strategy is then applied to the actual development of uncertain determinants (e.g. price developments), the optimum schedule for operating the power plant is determined.

USPs:

  • Proven substantial increase in net income of an energy portfolio compared to linear programming
  • Recommendations on the best strategy and course of action, also for flexible assets dependent on uncertain quantities
  • Standardised method of calculation for all assets, resulting in a complete portfolio analysis