Planning and optimization

Sales planning

Part of the process of each sales company is the planning of sales (energy volume, costs, revenues) as well as the derivation of requirements for the operative sales. Sales planning is generally based on contracts that are concluded or offered and for which the defined probability of an order exists. In addition, it incorporates market aspects as well as internal requirements into the planning process.

PSImarket fully supports the staff member in performing sales planning.

Planning process

The components considered in the planning are:

  • Concluded contracts that are relevant for the planning period.
  • Specified planned contracts resulting from current offers and market knowledge.
  • Unspecified planned volumes that are not yet associated with an offer but which are to be offered and contracted during the course of the current business activities.
  • By means of a commission schedule integrated in the system, central requirements can be established and pronounced depending on a specific contract.

Examples of these are:

  • Development of energy costs in the next few years
  • Development of the grid fees
  • Allotment of the distribution overhead costs
  • Surcharges for the commitment period (graduated according to duration and commitment period)
  • Risk premium, load profile deviation (by customer group)

Scenarios

Scenarios are created to calculate variations from the planning. Any number of planning objects can be considered for variations from the planning.

Presentation of results

The data from the planning objects tagged with "current" are merged into a 3-years plan. Among other things, the planning figures for the volume, the earnings and the procourement costs can be extracted from this report. The planning for the current year can be rolled against the development of the current year. Based on a best value concept, the system considers imported or calculated volumes, costs and earnings based on the actual load profile of the customer or based on the figures provided by a billing system.  Deviations from the planning can then be detected at an early stage.

Optimisation system

Our system for stochastic optimisation is based on linear as well as on dynamic programming and leads to a significant improvement in results compared to conventional optimization systems due to the consideration of stochastic determinants, such as variable prices, inflows etc.  In addition, aspects of risk can be taken into account at the same time as the optimisation whereby, for instance, the optimal employment contracting or portfolio management can be calculated while maintaining a defined VaR. Furthermore, the system is fully suitable for evaluating options and the identification of optimal strategies for exercising financial or real options (e.g. pumped storage, gas storage, swing options). Currently there are only a very limited number of real "stochastic" optimisation methods which exhibit procedure-immanent (e.g tree methods). However,unlike our procedure the others exhibit significant performance problems and/or deficiencies in the granularity of the image (no hourly resolution). Our optimisation system provides a high performance with hourly resolution of the time sequences and viewing horizon of up to several years.